Yep,
right now the reality is that people of the different tribles are killing each other. I guess it must be written somewhere in the Quoran to kill fellow believers too.

Wonder which power on earth is going to implement the new map. Maybe the American once they win their war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Or maybe because Iran will be the next soft target as Israel once thought of Hezballah. Or maybe Pakistan with its atomic bomb will let someone take part of its territory. Get your head out of the sand and accept reality.

I generally like the gist of your scenario. I believe that there are severe logistical errors with some of the elements, but I like the conclusion, which accounts for overpopulation, except for the deaths of Hindus, Christians, Bhuddists and the Uighurs.

tho its an extreme/over the top -meant at / dark humor ...

wonder how many violations of the eu justice charter ...

: )

• Military action ends, US, Britain and Russia announce reconstruction plan for the world
• Islam outlawed across the globe
• Residual Muslims worldwide embrace Christianity, Hinduism, Buddhism. Judaism, Athiesm
• Humanity enters post-Islamic phase.

Jihadi regime in Pakistan ups hostility with India
• Jihadis succeed in smuggling nuclear devices in the US and exploding them simultaneously
• US army takes over US administration, suspends constitution
• US military regime blockades the UN and declares it persona non-grata
• US enters into emergency war council with Russia and Britain
• The triple alliance starts nuclear bombing military targets across the Islamic world
• Pakistani nukes taken out in first strike
• Pakistan explodes some nuke devices on India
• Indian retaliation wipes off Pakistan off the map - death toll in South Asia is over half a billion
• Widespread Hindu-Muslim riots in India on the lines of the Gujarat riots of 2002. Muslim population decimated, Hindus and Christians also suffer heavy death toll.
• Nuclear campaign launched by the triple alliance intensifies as many cities in the Islamic world are taken off the map to wipe off the air forces.
• Seaports in the Islamic world crippled to decapitate the navies
• Radiation causes second wave of deaths. The toll in secondary deaths more than three billion
• More than half of the fatalities are Muslims.
• Almost the entire population in the Muslim world is decimated.
• China joins war against Islam, wipes off Muslim (Ughir) population in Eastern Turkestan
• Muslims in Europe launch a wave of terror attacks in European capitals
• Conditions in Europe very disturbed in a civil war like situation
• Right wing coups in France, BELGIUM ,Germany, Spain, Netherlands, Denmark. The new regimes join the triple alliance
• Widespread anti-Muslim riots in Europe aided by the militaries of those countries and NATO forces
• Domestic military action against Muslims in Europe intensifies as European militaries do combing operations to flush out Muslims
• The post-war Muslim population worldwide now accounts for only one percent of the global population concentrated mostly in Europe

• US forces enter Syria from Syrian-Iraqi border in the North, join up with Israeli military
• After the conquest of Syria, Israel turns on Egypt to help the pro Mubarak forces and annexes Sinai, crosses Suez Canal and threatens Cairo that is now in the hands of the Muslim brotherhood led Military junta.
• Another spectacular terror attack inside Israel with Dirty Bombs. Suspects traced to Saudi backed insurgents.
• Sustained IAF (Israel Air Force) nuke strike on Saudi cities, Mecca, Medina, Mena, Jiddah Riyadh, taken off the map.
• Upheaval in the entire Arab world
• Western diplomats and businessmen attacked, kidnapped, beheaded
• Anti-American riots in Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia.
• Musharraf and Yudhyono regimes under tremendous pressure to give up pro-US stance
• Musharraf assassinated by pro-Jihadi elements in Army due to his association with the US. The Jihadis last straw being his helping the Americans in finding Iran's nuke sites as a

*****trade off for letting AQ Khan off the hook. But Mushy's gamble does not pay off, as he loses his job and life.*** MUHAHAHAH.

• Iran tries to crash missiles into Israel and Europe
• Internal rebellion breaks out in Iran
• US special forces start operating inside Iran to topple Mullah regime
• Iranian/Hezbollah forces stage terrorist attacks in Israel and in the West
• US launches an air blitz of Iran followed by a land invasion and sets up a new regime
• The son of the late Shah of Iran returns to Iran as a private citizen
• Shiite -Hezbollah led terror attacks across the West and Israel intensify
• Israel invades Lebanon to wipe out the Hezbollah threat
• Egypt/Syria threaten Israel with serious consequences.
• Terrorist attacks originating from Gaza intensify in Israel
• Israel warns Syria with military action
• Mega terror attack inside Israel
• Israel declares Syria to be culpable and launches a swift land and air assault on Syria
• Syria appeals for Arab military action to save itself
• Egypt faces a civil war with sections of the Egyptian Military under the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood launch a insurrection against the Mubarak administration.
• Pressurized by Syria and Egypt, Saudi Arabia starts feeble military action against Israel
• Israel overruns Northern Saudi Arabia and Syria in a pincer movement to join up with US forces stationed in Iraq and occupies Damascus.

Shiite clerics want to rule the whole of Iraq and not the Southern Shiite rump and call for calm to keep Iraq united under their rule (we have reached this stage today)
• New Shiite dominated administration is formed and calls for phased pullout of US forces
• US forces begin a phased pullout
• They re-locate outside the cities in isolated fortified camps
• Sunni Terrorists blow off Iraqi parliament, Presidential palace, Prime Minister’s residence
• Terrorists assassinate Ministers, Parliamentarians
• Sunni Terrorists blow off Shiites Mosques at Najaf and Karbala, assassinate Al Hakim, and Moqtada Al Sadr who are important Shiites leaders and clerics.
• A full scale civil war starts between the Sunni dominated insurgents and the new Shiite led Iraqi military dominated by the late Al Hakim’s Badr Brigades and aided by the late Al Sadr’s Mahdi Militia
• Iran sends in insurgents to back Shiites
• Saudis, Syrians, Egyptians, Kuwaitis, Palestinians send in insurgents to back Sunnis
• Saudis and Kuwaitis call for US action to stop Iran from intensifying the Iraqi civil war
• Israel bombs Iranian nuke facilities to neutralize Iran.

For my part they can build a huge wall around it and no one is to be let out, just some pipelines coming out. They can fight it out among each other and leave the rest of the world in peace.

In exchange for oil, we'll throw BigMac's (pure beef!) over the wall. Feeding hours: 13:00 - 13:30.

Surley the puropse of the map is to show an alternative geo-policital future. People can argue about the actual detail (marcfrans: it seems NK has been 'lost' to Azerbaijan in the map, although that isn't the reality on the ground).

Ralph Peters's important contribution is to implant in the minds of policy makers that keeping the constitutional status quo, propping up failed states and ignoring legitimate aspirations of submerged nations or communities isn't always the best option. Borders and states change because identity is a dynamic thing.

The map reminds me of a map I had on my wall in the 1980s of the nations of Europe (rather than the states). It included Estonia, Lativia etc. Although as late at 1990 George Bush Snr told the Baltics to forget their aspirations for independence within a few months they were free. The map I and other West European nationalists (be they Welsh, Scottish, Basque, Flemish etc) saw was more correct than those maps used by the CIA, Western Foreign Offices, their Embassies and the International Politics course I was following at the time! I've got a feeling that Peters's map (though not 'perfect') will be the same.

The increase in more soverign states in Europe has contributed to, and has been a fundamental part of the extension of democracy in Europe. The lands between Istanbul and the Indus have a different tradition to Europe but I believe that old states will be dimished and new ones created before long. Peters's wants us to recognise that.

Many lives have been lost to 'nationalists' but a greater many lives are lost in the name of states as they pursue 'unity' and 'stability'.

On a point of interest - what's the reasoning/justificaton for a 'Greater Lebanon?

Exactly, any shia state is controlled automatically by Teheran and Kuwait, with a large shia minority, would last 3 days as an independent state. This would be the anavoidable outcome of this map. Mind you, Basrah is already lost to Teheran today, but it isn't very wise to add the Saudi fields also.

@ traveller

Are we looking at the same Peters map?  In the one I see, Iran looses territory and people.  It is not clear what this means in terms of oil output.  But in the map of Peters: (1) Koeweit remains independent, (2) the "Arab Shia State" gets southern Irak and the eastern Saudi oil fields, and (3) Kirkuk goes to the Kurds (which seems to have almost occurred already anyway).

So, what do you mean by "giving Iran COMPLETE control over Middle East oil fields"?  However, you might have a point if you assume that an "Arab Shia State" would not be independent from Teheran.  That is a good reason to work against that eventuality, and to seek the breakup of the ayathollah Persian Empire. 

In drawing a future map of the Middle East based on Islamic ethnicity and religious beliefs, don't forget those areas of Europe that will have to be included within the next 20 years or so. For example, Andalusia (formerly Spain) and The Gallic Islamic State (formerly France) will have to be included given their present birth rates, demographic, immigration patterns, and policies of complete capitulation to Islamofacism.

Sorry, I wanted to address the previous comment to Dog of Flanders and your name slipped in.

I am also convinced that we live in very dangerous times, but it is not because a British and a French diplomat made mistakes in the early 20th century,that we have to compound the mistake by giving the Iranians COMPLETE control over the Middle East oil fields which this map does and the man who proposed this should go back to his drawing board. If you want to call this West-bashing, so be it, I call it common sense.

Dog of Flanders,

Curious, is it not, but I certainly don't feel guilty for the past - an American predisposition? However, I do find myself at times - especially those arising out of a professional capacity - feeling guilty in not being capable of making a great many more aware of the dangers we currently face.

Now lets see, how did the map of Europe look in …1650?

You there! Wench! Get me an eraser and be quick!

Well, if we're throwing out suggestions what about returning Van and Mt. Ararat back to Armenia for the crimes the Turks did against them 100 years ago.

"Sorry, but in the construction and deconstruction of the 20th century Middle East the West IS guilty."

You can't have your cake and eat it.

If the current borders are "wrong" then they should be replaced by "better" ones.

Conversely, if we are for some reason to avoid changing borders or even discussing the possibility, we might just as well avoid blaming the West for the current ones.

Unless it's all just a gratuitous exercise in bash-the-West.

@ pvdh
.....
Yes, what about Wezembeek-Oppem?

It is fundamentally dishonest for you to compare this problem of 'muslim' borders with Belgian or European borders.  I know, the naive-left thinks that all people are the same, and reason in the same way, but that is just not the case.   And, you ignore my MAIN point, which is that IDEALLY the various peoples could benefit greatly EVENTUALLY from VOLUNTARY integration in regional institutions.   It is distressing that the naive-left mindset does not see a moral distinction between FORCED integration (usually inevitably under undemocratic regimes) and the VOLUNTARY integration of 'free peoples'.   So, yes,  a truly autonomous Flanders (dutch-speaking part of Belgium) in a more democratic EU would be greatly preferable to the present situation). It would at least remove a totally unnecessary layer of government, remove a variety of unnecessary frictions and 'robbery', and put responsibility closer where it belongs, i.e. the 'free' peoples of Europe.

It remains of course possible that those 'reasonable' Europeans may not be able to find a reasonable accomodation when drawing the line in Wezembeek-Oppem.  That would strengthen your view about 'all people being the same'.  It would also support my view that, historically, to the victors (Di Rupo and co) belong the spoils.

@ pvdh

How could I say this gently....?  Your sarcastic comments are not constructive ones to the discussion at hand.  If your point is that there are specific 'problems' with the fictional proposed map, it will not have escaped your attention that these problems exist with the current map of the region.

-- I presume that Kuweit remains on the fictional map because it is populated largely by sunni Arabs, surrounded by a sea of shia Arabs (in Irak, Iran, and Saudi Arabia).  The 'Kapitein' claims that these surrounding people are not Arabs, but "Arabised".  I don't really know for sure, but I believe that the sunni-shia split goes deeper for 'identity' than ethnicity. 

-- It is interesting to note that you seem to think that Koeweitis (irrespective of what their 'identity' might be) did NOT need to be liberated from Saddam's terrible Baath regime.  Once again, the pretense of 'morality' of the naive-left mindset in Belgium is astonishing.

-- If you look carefully at the Peters-map, you will notice that the problem of Nagorno-K is taken care of.  My understanding is that, on this minor point, his map reflects the existing reality between Armenia and Azerbajan. So, what's your point?  

-- And, then, there remains "Wezembeek-Oppem".......

.....

Sorry, but in the construction and deconstruction of the 20th century Middle East the West IS guilty. They did it in the usual way of western diplomats of the early 20th century: they were only rearranging the habitat of some savages. The whole of Africa is done the same way and the problems there are also not finished yet. Meanwhile the Middle East is such a hotchpotch of ethnic and religious interests that there is no visible cure anymore, except to let them all fight it out amongst themselves without our interference. The problem with that is that the loser will torch and destroy the oilfields under the fake banner of religion and the ultimate winner would without a doubt be Iran. So, thanks to the French and British diplomats we are damned if we do and damned if we don't.

"An excellent proposal, if only for the seething and teeth-gashing value."

Quite so, but also to expose the fact that the west is ALWAYS guilty, either for having established the current borders of their former colonies/protectorates/mandates, or for proposing new borders.

An excellent proposal, if only for the seething and teeth-gashing value. As they say, ‘There’s more than one way to produce a collective Islamic cerebral aneurysm.’

Favorable comments should be directed to: The American Cabal of Neocon Hegemony
The White House
Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington,

Firstly, the map is incorrect from an ethno-national sense.

• Iran and Syria are legitimate nations, despite the presence of minority groups in both e.g. Gilachs and Kurds in Iran may not identify themselves as Persians but they do as Iranians.
• The future of democracy in the Middle East remains Syria, Iran, and to some extent Lebanon; it is foolish to annex parts of the former two. Rather Shi'ite Iraq should eventually be ceded to Iran. Additionally, Azeri Iranians do identify as Iranian and are not identical to their kin to the North.
• The various Arab "states" exist due to persistent feudalism and socio-economic stratification based upon tribes, headed of course by dynasties. These Arab states are not ethno-national in the true sense e.g. Jordan, Koweit, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc.
• I agree with an independent Kurdistan, however, as little territory should be removed from Turkey as possible.
• I would not classify Iraqis as Arabs, rather they are Arabized - what their exact ethnicity is I am not sure. It might be wise to have a smaller Sunni Iraqi state including Baghdad...

These are just some broad and varied ideas, not a pretext for argument. If you're looking to go on a Kruschev-at-the-UN-style rant about these my response is self-explanatory: put the shoe away...

I have no sympathy for Saudi Arabia but if you touch it, it will stir every muslim around the world and the "family" will certainly finance those stirrings under pretext of an attack on the holy places and then the shit would really hit the fan.

Reading your comments to Stuart, I realize that your basic thinking is sound democratic, value-based and with solid christian morals.
The region which the Peters-map covers is none of the above and quite the contrary in everything. It is impossible to install democracy in that region. It is impossible to create ethnic loyalty beyond the immediate tribe and its land-area. Murder and theft are very common and while murder ends normally with the payment of bloodmoney in the same tribe, theft ends normally with murder. In short, go back 300 years and not 50 like most politicians and analysts think. The society is feudal and stays rigidly so. Wishing for a clear ethnic divide is utterly impossible and in the present circumstances not only useless but very dangerous.

I don't know Mr. Peters and it may very well be that he is an intelligent man, but this map ressembles to much the errors of the past by the different U.S. administrations.
I am very familiar with that region for spending ca. 25 years there and I have seen too many stupidities by the U.S. intelligence and foreign services in those countries by people who didn't have a clue what they were provoking in those countries. If you are interested I could go into details on a more private level.

Your assessment of the background is right, but the simple ethnic colouring of the map is totally wrong, for instance the expression "arab shia" is pure guesswork and can only be partially right. This region was persian for about 2.000 years before becoming Arab controlled and then Turkish controlled. The real arabs were in Yemen,Saudi Arabia,Jordan and a few tribes along the Persian Gulf. This map would reinforce the Iranian problem 10-fold. The oil-problem will solve itself in 50 years, there won't be any oil anymore.

I'm curious what the "peters-map" of Belgium would look like. On which side of the border would he put, lets say, Wezembeek-Oppem?
Funny he left Kuwait on the Map. didn't now they were an ethnic entity on their own. But then why liberate them from Irak? Surely not to restore rotten European made borders? He also “forgot” to restore ancient Armenia. And what the fuck happened to nagorno-karabach?

@ Stuart

I agree with you that borders along ethnic and religious lines would in the end reduce violent conflicts.  It would also respect the value of self-determination of peoples. 

However, I doubt that, in and of itself, these 'new' borders would lead to "more non-oil 'free' economy".  Nor do I think that they would better safeguard individual freedoms.  At least not in the muslim world.  Although, the experience with the self-government of the Kurds in Iraq over the past 15 years, and particularly the past 3 years since 'liberation') provides a powerful example of contra-evidence.  That, in itself provides a strong argument in favor of the Peters-map as an 'ideal'.  But an ideal that is largely unattainable for the peoples of the region. Precisely because of opposition from the entrenched kleptocracies.

I think that individual freedoms (including economic ones, 'your non-oil free economy') could be enhanced or better guaranteed for individuals in that region if their peoples could VOLUNTARILY integrate in regional political structures. But, for that to become possible in the distant future, the existing 'unnatural' political monstrosities will need to be destroyed first. If that makes me sound like a 'jihadist', believe me it is purely co-incidental. They don't wish for the Peters map, whereas I do.

...and moderation.

@traveller

Ralph Peters is one (yes 1!) pundit and strategic thinker who publishes regulary on geopolitical and military issues.  And, you turn this into "the US having a geostrategic thought".  That is not very serious, and also smells of - may I say it? -  somewhat 'idiotic' and unnecessary self-flagellation. 

Furthermore, you refer to Peters (indirectly) as "an idiot".  His views are sometimes controversial and not widely shared, at least not by the currrent US powers-that-be.  But referring to him as an "idiot" is not very smart, nor wise.  

I think that some of your 'objections' are valid ones.  But, consider that Peters is NOT saying that the US should redraw the map.  He is saying that one should be prepared for much more trouble, and endless conflict, until the actual Middle East map will approach something resembling his fictional map, through the confluence of numerous developments to come.

A detail.  Why do you care that Saudi Arabia might lose "the reason for its existance"?  Saudi Arabia is not a country (in the sense of a 'nation'); it is a (family) regime, and a despicable one at that.

traveller,

As the article stated, there will be problems and unsatisfied minorities no matter how the map of the Middle East may be drawn. It's quite clear that its current configuration is haphazard and contrary to ethnic and religious boundaries. One reason the 20th century Islamic nations have been ruled by dictatorships is because that's the only way to hold contrary minorities together in that part of the world.

Much of the map of this part of the world was drawn by the British along the lines of natural resources rather than cultural affinity. The one significant natural resource, oil, has been a curse for Middle Eastern nations as they have become so entirely dependent on it. If you subtract all the oil revenue from the combined GDP of all the Arab nations -- Morocco to Iraq, Syria to Yemen -- that combined GDP is less than that of Finland. In my mind that’s about the most important of many horrible facts about the Islamic Middle East.

Rearranging the borders along truly ethnic lines would surely mean less dictatorship, more non-oil free economy, and therefore less hostility.

Stuart

Every time the U.S. has a geo-strategic thought I wonder which idiot has been reponsible this time?
Free Baluchistan: all the natural resources of Pakistan and its 160.000.000 people go to max. 6.000.000 people.
Kuwait stays a little independent dot in a sea of "arab shia", for how long? 3 days?
The "arab shia state" will receive the oil wells of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Basrah in order to hand it over to Iran???
Saudi Arabia will lose Mecca and Medina, the reason for its existence.
God help us and saves us from those idiots, I don't even want to go further about the greater Afghanistan and Kurdistan which means war between Afghanistan and Pakistan and between Turkey, Iran and Iraq,etc. etc.