France Joins the Coterie

From the desk of The Brussels Journal on Thu, 2007-09-20 16:00

A quote from Gideon Rachman at his blog, 18 September 2007

This week [French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner] has made the headlines, by saying of Iran - "We have to prepare for the worst and the worst is war." This goes beyond even what George W. Bush has said. His preferred formula is that – “All options are on the table”.

I have met Kouchner only once, when I was chairing a debate in Paris a couple of years ago. [...] When he began to speak he started off in English – apparently absent-mindedly – before switching to French. The professor from the Sorbonne, sitting next to me, was unimpressed. “He’s showing off,” he hissed, “trying to show that he is so international that he cannot even remember that he is French.” [...]

When it comes to Iran, it is also clear that Kouchner is no loose cannon (to use an appropriately martial metaphor.) Sarkozy himself has raised the possibility of war. [...]The rhetoric from Paris clearly makes an attack on Iran more likely. Until Kouchner and Sarkozy weighed into the debate, it was possible to argue (not entirely inaccurately) that the only real “war party” in western governments, was confined to a coterie of unrepentant neo-cons, grouped around Vice-President Cheney. But now that even France is talking of war, the international calculations will surely shift.

Catch him now !

Submitted by Armor on Mon, 2007-09-24 16:19.

The Americans should capture Ahmadinejad while he visits the UN in New York.
It would be cheaper than bombing Iran!

Interesting Times

Submitted by Kapitein Andre on Mon, 2007-09-24 07:19.

It is unclear whether or not the United States - let alone France, Israel or a combination of all three - would be able to effectively sabotage the Iranian nuclear programme. Any attack on Iran would entail a massive response, probably against Iraq, Israel or both and possibly involving proxies such as Hizbullah and assorted Shia paramilitaries. Moreover, the Iranians are as prepared as they can be, unlike their Iraqi predecessors. Therefore, preventing it will require a serious assault on Iranian military units and installations that could retaliate as well as regular sabotage of any renewed work. Lastly, these military operations might destabilize the regime such that it collapses and Iran descends into anarchy and civil warfare, especially where its Azeris and Balochis are concerned.

 

Of further concern is the destruction that Iran can wreak on the Persian Gulf with minimal effort e.g. attacking shipping, refineries, rigs, etc.

Iran

Submitted by peter vanderheyden on Mon, 2007-09-24 11:42.

Iran, clearly is of a totally different caliber then (sunny) Al Qaeda. Fighting against Al Qaeda is like fighting symptoms. You might give them some hard blow, like in Afghanistan, but you know they will be back, sooner or later. They are more like a nuisance though, not really capable of “defeating the west.”, but surely capable of hurting us badly with their terror machinery. To stop Al Qaeda, one needs to attack the roots of the problem: Radical Islam. I’m not certain how to do it. Before, like many people on the left, I thought fighting poverty and resolving the Palestinian problem would do the job, but now I’m almost certain it won’t. Frankly, I don’t have a clue on how to defeat this “virus of the mind.”
Iran however, has little to do with radical Islam. True, they are ruled by Mullahs, and they want to keep the Iranian people out of the decadent influence of the west. but their main objective is not “Jihad, spreading Islam, defeating the decadency of the west” There goal is power and influence of Iran in the middle east region and beyond. This is something much more conventional (from a historical point of view), then terrorism. It is very comparable with the world-power Nazi Germany sought. And we wouldn’t trust Hitler with a nuke, would we? Kouchner is right. We’re facing a world threat here. Iran is gaining terrain quickly every day. In Iraq, but also trough it’s proxies as Hamas and Hesbollah. The chaos created by the US-Al Qaeda clash in the Middle East creates vacuums that are happily occupied by Iran. Let’s face it. The US is loosing its grip on the region. With its mighty army, it doesn’t seem to be able to pacify Iraq. Even worse, with most of the US army permanently stuck in Iraq, Iran is pretty sure an invasion of the country is out of the question. In Afghanistan, the Taliban are gaining power by the day. And the regime in Pakistan seems to lose its grip on the situation, since the red mosque debacle. Even the Israeli depict the Lebanon-war as a half-defeat.
And all that at a vital area for the number one resource of our economy: oil. It’s time for Europe to act. We simply can’t afford chaos in the Middle East, nor Iranian domination of the region.

Iran # 2

Submitted by marcfrans on Mon, 2007-09-24 17:07.

@ pvdh

If I may say so, I detect commendable 'progress' or evolution in your thinking about geopolitical issues. Two points:

-- Your assertion about the US army "being permanently stuck in Iraq" is in line with what the naive-left media is telling us on a daily basis. But that is a 'message' based on a political/ideological agenda, particularly - and most relevantly - the agenda of perhaps half of the Democratic party establishment in the US. But, it is not based on military reality. I do not think that the Iranian leadership will be equally naive in falling for that particular 'line' of the western media. Their defense does not rest on "the US army being stuck" (because it isn't), but rather on 'buying' Russian and Chinese support. At the same time, of course, they do hope that the naive-left western media will continue to undermine western political will.

-- Yes, it is way past time "for Europe to act". Europe should have acted years ago. Instead of pretending that one could diplomatically 'talk away' the theocrats' nuclear program, it should have joined the efforts to impose severe economic and diplomatic sanctions. But now, with Chirac finally out of the way, it appears that Germany's short-term economic interests are becoming the biggest western obstacle. They probably always were conveniently hidden behind earlier French illusions and pretenses of importance (sorry, 'grandeur').

@ marcfrans

Submitted by traveller on Mon, 2007-09-24 18:25.

There is absolutely no doubt that the iranians are feeling definitely worried, more so since the israëlis walked through the syrian "sophisticated" russian air defenses beginning this month.
Every military consultant in Iran gets the same question nowadays: when will the US attack? Are the israelis going to join them?
The main problem is their economy, notwithstanding the 80$ oilprice, their social system is draining them with a 50% unemployment rate of the young(18/30years old).
What "persian" says is true, wipe out the revolutionary guard bases without entering the national iranian territory and there will be a revolution against the mollahs who lost all moral support and respect.
I don't know if the mujahedeen Khalq still have a big silent following in Iran but they were potentially a well organized opposition in the past. France tried to please the mollahs a few years ago by forbidding and arresting the organisation's leaders in France, but the courts set them free.

Right for the wrong reason

Submitted by G-Dub on Fri, 2007-09-21 16:57.

Amsterdamsky is probably right, but the "slave to the lobby" implication woudn't be the reason.

If Iran is attacked, they may well attack Israel in an attempt to get them involved in the war, thus bringing other Arab countries into it as well.

I think Israel would be given a chance to quietly prepare before anything happened.  Once they are ready, The French would press their white flags and surrender... I mean an attack on Iran could happen at any time.

@ Mike H #2

Submitted by Atlanticist911 on Thu, 2007-09-20 23:46.

btw

 

"It seems to be on a random closed loop".

 

On all matters pertaining to Israel that remark might better describe the workings of the mind of Amsterdamsky.

@ Mike H

Submitted by Atlanticist911 on Thu, 2007-09-20 23:36.

Not being Jewish myself and not having any connection with the people who operate this particular website (I'm not privy to the inner sanctum where the the 'Elders' decide these things ) Sorry,I can't answer that question ;-))

@Atlanticist911

Submitted by Mike H. on Thu, 2007-09-20 22:58.

How many years does it take to finish voting at My Favorite Jew? It seems to be on a random closed loop. ;)

@Atlanticist911

Submitted by bd on Thu, 2007-09-20 19:48.

Don't bother, it's clear Amstedamsky believes in his governments propaganda of "Jews are the problem".  Unfortunately, he accepts his drug fueled culture of de-sensitization of the real world.  Drugs and Sex, the new religion of the Self.  As long as Socialists can provide something to blame, someone to blame they're failures on and let the people who they have neutered over the years stimulants and the never ending party, they will remain in power.  I wonder if he's ever read "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion".  He probably believes it.

 

No, he will never answer your question.  If he says 'Yes', then he goes against the will of his government.  If he says 'No', then he shows his racism, and racism is a crime.

@Amsterdamshalomsky #2

Submitted by Atlanticist911 on Thu, 2007-09-20 19:01.

Let me rephrase that question:

 

"Do you support Israel's basic right to exist,yes or no?" [Bearing in mind that,according to you,even the current presidents of Iran and Syria claim to do that]. 

@Amsterdamshalomsky

Submitted by Atlanticist911 on Thu, 2007-09-20 18:54.

"AIPAC is not a conspiracy..."

 

Agreed.

 

Now,tell me,do you support Israel's basic right to exist,yes or no? [Even the Saudis claim to do so].

@Atlanticist911

Submitted by bd on Thu, 2007-09-20 18:36.

74 AD: Everybody knows jet fuel, which hasn't been invented yet, doesn't burn hot enough to melt stone, which is what the Temple was built with.  It was and inside job.  They even called all the Jewish employees that day to tell them to take the day off.  Then they littered the grounds with Roman Shields and Swords.  This was proved because it contained a dangerously high lead count.  They were purchased in China before the Chinese recalled them!

AIPAC is not a conspiracy

Submitted by Amsterdamsky on Thu, 2007-09-20 18:27.

AIPAC is not a conspiracy and operates in the open.  The fact that it is not registered as a foreign lobby is really the issue.  The open spy prosecution against three members should also give american-americans pause. 

@bd #2

Submitted by Atlanticist911 on Thu, 2007-09-20 17:25.

AD 73: "Told ya so! Turns out them Jews committed suicide anyway.So much for blaming the Romans.More Zionist propaganda..."

@bd

Submitted by Atlanticist911 on Thu, 2007-09-20 17:11.

"Amsterdamsky,just how many conspiratorial plots do you believe in?"

 

Amsterdamsky:

70 AD: "The Romans destroyed the temple? Bullshit! Everybody knows it was an inside job".

 

72 AD: "There you go again,blaming the Romans.Everbody knows that Masada was a legitimate response to prior Jewish aggression.Those Jews should have remembered the old Roman proverb,"Dura lex sed lex".I see this as nothing more than payback for that Jewish attempt to frame the Romans for the burning of their own temple a couple of years ago..."

Slaves to the Lobby

Submitted by Amsterdamsky on Thu, 2007-09-20 16:05.

"The rhetoric from Paris clearly makes an attack on Iran more likely. "

 

Yeah but the "Go" decision will be made in Tel Aviv. I would even trust Bush more than Congress on this one.