In looking at the state of the environmentalism movement today, it is important to look at the past. Through many discussions and researching, one particular publication keeps coming to the front as the founding document of the modern-day environmental movement, The Ecologist. More specifically, Volume 2 Number 1, January 1972 (A Blueprint for Survival). See the entire issue for yourself here. This particular issue is viewed as ‘seminal’ to the environmental movement. Penguin Books even republished the entire edition due to ‘high demand’.

What are some of the foundations of the modern-day environmental movement provided for in this 1972 issue of the Ecologist:

Failure of Food Supplies

Prediction:

Indeed, the amount of marginal land available for agriculture is severely limited and it has been estimated that if the required increases in food production were to be met from this source alone, the reserves of land would be exhausted within a decade or less.

Given that demand for land must increase with population growth, and that populations are increasing exponentially, and assuming that the per capita requirement of land is 0.4 hectares for agricultural purposes and 0.08 hectares for non-agricultural poses (a low estimate), Meadows has shown that by the year 2000 the land available is likely to have decreased by 250 million hectares, while the demand will have increased by about 2.4 billion hectares, and that somewhere between 1980 and 1990 the demand for land will exceed the supply.

Reality:

At present (2003) some 11 percent (1.5 billion ha) of the globe’s land surface (13.4 billion ha) is used in crop production (arable land and land under permanent crops). This area represents slightly over a third (36 percent) of the land estimated to be to some degree suitable for crop production. The fact that there remain some 2.7 billion ha with crop production potential suggests that there is still scope for further expansion of agricultural land. (Source, World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030. An FAO perspective...)

Prediction:

It is unrealistic to suppose that there will be increases in agricultural production adequate to meet forecast demands for food, and the notion that technological inputs can be made available that would guarantee a doubling of production by 1980 and a further doubling by 2100 is no more than fantasy.

Reality:

Comparing the productions of various food/agricultural products (Mt), 1972 vs. 2004: Wheat 343,001,989 (1972) vs. 627,130,584 (2004), Rice 307,325,372 (1972) vs. 605,758,530 (2004), Maize 308,826,290 (1972) vs. 721,391,361 (2004), Carrots 7,956,171 (1972) vs. 23,977,544 (2004), see more for yourself at FAOSTAT.

Prediction:

In large parts of Texas, for example, the present long drought is exacerbated by low water tables and it is possible that farming in Texas may have to be abandoned altogether.

Reality:

Crop and animal production in Texas for the year 2003 amounted to U$D 6,326,000,000 (Source US Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Exhaustion of Resources

Prediction:

Present reserves of all but a few metals will be exhausted within 50 years, if consumption rates continue to grow as they are. Obviously there will be new discoveries and advances in mining technology, but these are likely to provide us with only a limited stay of execution.

Reality:

Although predicted to be depleted by 2005, the resources of silver, gold, copper, mercury, lead, platinum, tin, tungsten, and zinc, are still very much being mined, used, traded, etc.

Collapse of Society

Prediction:

In a world of fast diminishing resources, we shall quickly come to the point when very great numbers of people will be thrown out of work, when the material compensations of urban life are either no longer available or prohibitively expensive, and consequently when whole sections of society will find good cause to express their considerable discontent in ways likely to be anything but pleasant for their fellows.

Reality:

Still waiting.

This post does not even scratch the surface of the aversion to technology, commune-style living, and reduction to some sort of primitive hunting/gathering/organic farming state called for in the Ecologist’s manifesto. What is important to know is this manifesto is a cornerstone of the modern-day environmental movement. What is equally important is how wrong the predictions were and the state of man which the Ecologist calls for in order to ‘save’ the world.

Things to remember when environmental groups issue their modern-day warnings of doom-and-gloom. These warnings come from a long line of incorrect predictions and outrageous prescriptions.

Things to remember when governmental bodies act on the ‘information’ provided by the ‘experts’ in the modern-day environmental movement. Who knows how much man’s progress would have been set back had this ‘seminal’ document been implemented.

Shall we discuss the formerly in vogue phenomenon of global cooling?