Duly Noted: Lessons From Haiti
From the desk of George Handlery on Sat, 2010-01-23 11:32
1.Haiti. The tragedy behind the crisis will be hijacked to prove pet peeves. This writer’s perspective and experience is with war between men, and not with nature against man. From this personal perspective, the ability of the locals to improvise and to bear deserves recognition. People that live in the kind of perfected systems in which everything works as it is supposed to, are subject to two errors. One: They underestimate the ability of some societies to cope with unanticipable cataclysms. Second: They overestimate their own skills to cope with the kind of devastation that leads to a total collapse. Closely related to this is that advanced societies are skilled in the art of circumnavigating and avoiding turbulence. Nevertheless, some crises are unavoidable and the breakdown caused is inevitable. The earthquake would have severed the sinews that bind together optimally structured societies. Overall, the Haitians, conditioned as they were by their badly functioning system, coped well with the collapse of the state, the economy, the infrastructure, social institutions and the disappearance laws.
2. Another lesson of the Haitian quake’s aftermath is that American involvement has been crucial. Once again, the USA emerged as the only power able to project its effective reach beyond her own fence while demonstrating a willingness to help massively. Even so, as could be assumed, there was carping by Monday morning quarterbacks about real and assumed errors. Some of the charges are absurd. Such as the US’ presumed, wish to occupy Haiti. Or to deprive Brazil of its leadership role. In the context of a lacking infrastructure, everything had to be improvised and so, given the demands created by the full wipeout, some complaints are reflections of a lack of understanding for total chaos’ imperatives – and of political opportunism. At the same time, one wonders what sense the political tourism of the prominent made. Outstanding here is Ms Clinton’s visit. The case reminds one of the “Hair Force” affair of Bill’s early Presidency. (No, the centerpiece of that affair is a haircut blocking LAX, not a female.) Hillary’s dropping in put needless pressure on the airport’s limited capacities and so hindered rescue efforts. Did the Secretary of State wish to negotiate about something with someone in Port-au-Prince? Or was this a fact-finding mission? Perhaps to ascertain whether there has been a quake, estimate the destruction and to seize up Bush’ responsibility for this and everything else? Unlikely. We are left with the impression of a damaging way to get TV exposure.
3. The recent attack on Westergaard – the Danish creator of the Muhammad cartoons – might prove several things. One of them is that the war of cultures is on. Well, at least for one side. That party pursues the struggle relentlessly and injects its entire means into the fight. Meanwhile the target of the attack tries to ignore politely and naively that it is being beleaguered. If acknowledged, the hordes gathering around the walls continue to be depicted an assemblage of upset fans. The hope is that non-reaction will be interpreted as proof of good will that is substantiated by unconditional tolerance. Thus, an improvement of the relationship and a lessened physical aggressiveness is expected. While waiting, the refusal to retaliate should prove that non-violent approaches might ultimately confer upon the goal of conversion a chance. Passivity is also deemed a strategy that prevents further radicalization by making it unnecessary. Meanwhile the slogan remains: “With my eyes closed I see no trouble”.
4. Eastern Europe in the post-Soviet age. Note how the accustomed term “post-Communist” has been avoided. This to suggest that, while the USSR might be gone, her operators are still around. Thereby the influence of camouflaged Communist apparatchiks remains decisive. Admittedly, the comportment of those local majorities that hinder a consistent settling of the accounts with the past is odd. The abnormality suggests that these populations might have been genial in circumventing local tyrannies and could make the best of these. However, in the context of freedom, the same people are clumsy and thus incapable to exploit liberty’s potential to improve their lives. Many Western intellectuals, perhaps reflecting their old appreciation for Soviet “achievements”, are equally at a loss to respond to the new situation. Local and Western intellectuals are inclined to claim that freedom implies that the masses do as they wish. (We should be governed by philosophers.) Nevertheless, the West’s thinkers become rather parsimonious when it comes to defending the freedom of others in still existing direct and covert leftist dictatorships.
There might be a rational explanation for the lack of concern of the class that claims to embody virtue and wisdom. In genuine democracies, intellectuals are free to act. The drawback is that others, including those not anointed by the select to membership, are also free to, heaven forbid, disregard certified intellectuals.. In dictatorships, the intellectuals get official esteem if they make their peace with the system and work for it for pecuniary rewards. Even in this case, as Romania's case demonstrates, they might not be held responsible for the consequences of their prostitution when the theory fails and the idol, whose glory they sang, is removed. In the realm of liberty, everyone is allowed to criticize anybody. Furthermore, where freedom rains, the forgers of ideals may be reminded of their failed punditry.
Dictatorships take their intellectuals seriously. It shows the significance attributed to the intellectuals that tyrannies support some, tolerate others and persecute the rest. Even the maltreatment of the unbending demonstrates backhanded appreciation. Where liberty is practiced, there might be no censure and no prison for the advocacy of the politically deviant. There is there, however, something that is worse than the pattern of persecution for non-conformity and the rewards for servility. Being ignored by an uncaring majority that does not take the nattering class seriously is a form of death sentence. Indifference by a public that pursues private pleasures can hurt more than the vigilant attention of a ruling class that bothers to read you, censure you, and that acknowledges you by handing you medals or jail.
5. It is revealing how the Soviet threat is retroactively depicted. The term “threat” is deserved. Moscow exported by violent means its system into what Hitler had softened up for it by his conquest. Stalin, the killer of many more millions than Hitler, planned a war before his demise. His successors, while of lesser ability then the Leader, have most wisely shifted their tactical emphasis from Europe to its encirclement through the Third World. The Soviet Idea had an ideology claiming scientific validity. Therefore, it was proclaimed to be predestined to become the world system. This march toward destiny was headed by an “infallible” leader with access to overwhelming conventional and nuclear arms. Added up, this hardly amounts to a scarecrow as some that used to advocate softness toward the USSR now like to insinuate. Nonetheless, if one has no independent knowledge of the strengths and intentions of Soviet Communism, an odd conclusion can emerge from its after-the-fact depiction.
Those that once advocated weakness toward an “ irresistibly powerful” Kremlin, are now pandering a retouched image. The attempt to downgrade might be more than the result of bad history. The obvious purpose of this downsizing is to cover up personal records and to pursue old approaches by belittling past and current security threats.
This revised version of the past alleges that the threat to freedom and free men had been grossly exaggerated at the time. The proof of the thesis is that the USSR collapsed without a major war. This retroactive dismissal of a peril is voiced by those who, at the time, did more than to underestimate the Kremlin. They regarded Moscow and Washington as equals and generally suggested that resisting the Soviets is not worth the efforts and is also predestined to fail. On this level, the dismissive interpretation is useful: it washes the dirty linen that is stored in the closet out of which normally skeletons pounce on you. That leaves us with distorted history. Fighting this presentation is a matter of an intellectual duty. In this case, however, ignorance is more damaging than is ignorance in general. The implications are damaging in the light of the current struggle with Islamism. Let us backtrack. Those who once argued that there is nothing to defend that can be protected, now like to claim that there was no need to make an effort. Retroactively this endorses the „treason of the clerks“. The same sources belittle and deny the threat of our present. In doing so they can insinuate that, the concern with the professed threat in the past has been an exaggeration that bordered on extremism. Therefore, resisting the fanatics of our time is analogous. Nothing needs to be done, nothing should be done, and nothing can be done. Beyond that, if no provocative defense is mounted, the alleged storm will just fade away. Just ask any ostrich.
North American defense
Submitted by marcfrans on Mon, 2010-01-25 18:42.
@ Frank Lee
I am on your side. Three points.
- The Canadians are doing their fair share for the defense of the North American continent in terms of air space. One cannot really blame them for refusing to take the defense of the whole 'free world' on their shoulders.
- It would not be rational to expect the Canadians, the Chinese or the EU to defend America. Canada is too small in terms of human resources. China wants to weaken America as much as possible, for the USA is the only effective constraint on its long term plans, and the EU is 'schizophrenic' (i.e. its brain says one thing, its 'cultivated' emotion says the opposite).
- Nobody is 'forcing' America to help people in Haiti and around the world. That is, or remains, solely America's choice.
@ marcfrans
Submitted by Frank Lee on Mon, 2010-01-25 04:55.
You wrote: "The Canadians have put their fiscal house in order over the past 15 years or so. The Americans should follow their example."
No doubt you are right. But let's not forget that the United States has been heavily subsidizing the Canadians' national defense for much longer than fifteen years. If someone else -- Canada? China? the EU? -- would volunteer to defend the United States for the next fifteen years, and equip themselves to fly into places like Haiti and restore order in a matter of hours, we Americans might have an easier time of putting our fiscal house in order.
Respond # 3
Submitted by marcfrans on Mon, 2010-01-25 02:40.
@ mpresley
1) The Canadian 'thing' was a (reasonable) shot in the dark.
2) Unfunded liabilities (social security etc...) will be either funded or 'adjusted'. In the latter case, this will happen through either market forces or the political process (mainly the latter). That is the beauty of both democracy and (relatively) free markets. They make room for adjustments, sometimes more timely than in other times, in contrast with 'unfree' societies.
3) All three will occur: faster revenue growth, slower expenditure growth, and inflation. Buy TIPS, i.e. Treasury Inflation Adjusted Securities.
4) If the Chinese and others refuse to purchase these notes? Then their price will fall and the interest rate will rise. This will set in motion many forces, e.g. force more fiscal discipline, lower the dollar exchange rate, improve employment+output+government revenues, etc...These foreign purchases are definitely NOT like a "gift". They represent a choice undertaken by foreign governments who are less enamored with 'market forces' and who prefer more 'controls'.
5) I know, it was "others" that mentioned the Russian 'thing'. In my view, that notion remains laughable on its face.
P.S. The Canadians have put their fiscal house in order over the past 15 years or so. The Americans should follow their example.
@marcfrans
Submitted by mpresley on Mon, 2010-01-25 23:25.
The Canadians have put their fiscal house in order over the past 15 years or so. The Americans should follow their example.
I plead ignorance of Canada, and take your word. However I find no great political will in the US to do so. Richard Feser, CEO of the Dallas Federal Reserve bank, in '08 (before the Bush/Obama bailouts started) stated:
The good news: the Social Security shortfall might be manageable. It is at least possible to imagine how Congress might find, within a $14 trillion economy, ways to wrestle with a $13 trillion unfunded liability. The bad news is that Social Security is the lesser of our entitlement worries. It is but the tip of the unfunded liability iceberg. The much bigger concern is Medicare... The total? $85.6 trillion... That is more than six times as large as the bill for Social Security. It is more than six times the annual output of the entire U.S. economy.
Respond? # 2
Submitted by marcfrans on Sun, 2010-01-24 22:57.
@ mpresley
Sometimes it is advisable to 'forget' - just for a while - that one is or could be a Canadian.
1) No economy, including the US one, "exists solely on the promise of future receipts covering current expenditures". All economies rest on - or exist because of - available natural and human resources, with the emphasis on human resources. Also, it is not a "big question" whether there will be any future receipts. That is a ridiculous question that belongs to the planet of fantasy.
2) On what basis do you claim that the US is effectively "bankrupt"? Presumably you mean the US government. Is there any evidence of the US government not repaying its debt? Have there been 'defaults' on US Treasury notes or bonds? If so, I would like to know!
3) If you think that "other countries", especially China and Japan, are purchasing US government debt out of their "largesse", then you are profoundly mistaken and misunderstanding what is going on. Is anybody holding a gun to their collective heads when they make these purchases?
4) The notion that the Russians might offer "a way out" for a (euphemistic) "class of American citizens" is laughable on its face. That belongs to the planet of...'Monarchist'.
Otherwise, I can agree with you that the US should put "its (fiscal) house in order".
we must speak by the card...
Submitted by mpresley on Mon, 2010-01-25 00:05.
Also, it is not a "big question" whether there will be any future receipts. That is a ridiculous question that belongs to the planet of fantasy.
You're right, it is ridiculous as I wrote too loosely. But I suspect you know what I meant and are just hassling me for a poor choice of words. That's OK. I should have been more clear. What I meant to write was that liabilities, especially future promises (Medicare, Social Security and so forth) are essentially unfunded, and there is not much prospect they will be. So while the idea of no future receipts was ridiculous, the idea behind what I wrote was not.
On what basis do you claim that the US is effectively "bankrupt"? Presumably you mean the US government. Is there any evidence of the US government not repaying its debt?
Of course I mean the US government. However, as our debt increases exponentially it is a real question as to whether it can be serviced without very drastic measures. In order for debt to be retired, or even managed well, income must increase proportionately (whether we are talking of individual households, or government). When households or governments cannot meet their debt obligations they must do one of two things, or a combination of the two: reduce spending or increase income (revenue). However, the government has a third option inasmuch as it can also manipulate currency through central banks, and pay debts with inflated dollars. The latter is essentially cheating the creditor.
If you think that "other countries", especially China and Japan, are purchasing US government debt out of their "largesse", then you are profoundly mistaken and misunderstanding what is going on. Is anybody holding a gun to their collective heads when they make these purchases?
Strictly there is no gift implied when another country purchases a treasury note. However, if they refused to do so, then what would be the alternative for the government? The government would either have to raise taxes in order to make up the shortfall (although there is not enough income that can be confiscated through taxation in order to retire the debt) or the Fed would have to monetize. So, in a way, foreign purchases are not unlike a gift. However, unlike a gift, there are always unintended strings attached. And these should make us all wary.
The notion that the Russians might offer "a way out" for a (euphemistic) "class of American citizens" is laughable on its face. That belongs to the planet of...'Monarchist'.
Just to be clear, I did not say they would, but only that others have said so.
how to respond?
Submitted by mpresley on Sun, 2010-01-24 15:37.
Many Western intellectuals, perhaps reflecting their old appreciation for Soviet “achievements”, are equally at a loss to respond to the new situation.
It is not clear exactly what is being suggested? However, what is clear is that before anything can be done, the US must quickly order its own house. First, the American economy exists solely on the promise of future receipts covering current expenditures. Right now it is a big question whether there will be any future receipts. The US is effectively bankrupt, and is only functional at all due to the largess of other countries' willingness to purchase government debt (mostly China and Japan), a central bank policy of "quantitative easing" (creating dollars out of nothing), and whatever tax receipts are now and will be available, but this last source is rapidly shrinking relative to expenditures. In a strange way, China is subsidizing US foreign policy.
Second, as the US becomes increasingly Third World in demographics and outlook, expect major shifts in what is available for the First World population that continues to exist. There are those who believe the Russians may offer "a way out" for that class of American citizens who are now becoming increasingly marginalized by internal American liberal policies. This may seem odd, but, as Bertrand Russell said anent Nietzsche, that is not my fault.
is cause mistaken for effect?
Submitted by mpresley on Sun, 2010-01-24 15:08.
Overall, the Haitians, conditioned as they were by their badly functioning system...
Are Haitians "conditioned" by a badly functioning system, or is a badly functioning system conditioned by the Haitians?
Some of the charges are absurd. Such as the US’ presumed, wish to occupy Haiti.
The charges (from the usual suspects) are simply another anti-American vent. On the other hand, where there's smoke... The US has been implicit in Haitian politics for years, has contributed billions in aid (with little if any results) and we are now importing massive quantities of their citizens, citizens who will soon be on government assistance and will likely not return. American liberals do not mind that Haiti occupies the US, and, in fact, welcome this turn of events.
Just as the current change in the Haitian situation can be attributed to a natural cause (earthquake), the chronic inability of Haitians to govern themselves and create a functional civil society is also a natural result stemming from the overall state of Haitian ability. But no one wants to talk about it, as to recognize the fact is too painful for the liberal sensibility to bear.
RE: Duly Noted "Lessons from Haiti"
Submitted by Kapitein Andre on Sat, 2010-01-23 21:54.
RE:
1. Given the dire predictions for anarchy and choas in the aftermath of the quake, the level of crime and violence is surprisingly low, especially with several thousand escaped convicts running amok and the total absence of law enforcement. Pundits have compared the quake to Katrina, and have faced strong criticism due to the clear differences in damage, etc. However, when one compares the aftermaths of each disaster from a relative standpoint, the looting and police desertion in New Orleans is highly embarassing.
2. The United States military deserves commendation from the international community for its efforts on behalf of Haiti. Brazil's response lags far behind Canada's, let alone the United States', and were it not for a pre-existing Brazilian presence, Lula would be sidelined. As it stands, which country can possible match American logistical capabilities or response time? Incidentally, the United States is also occupying South Korea and menacing Japan and Taiwan (eyes roll)...
3-5. Duly noted.
Massachusetts Miracle
Submitted by atheling on Sat, 2010-01-23 18:37.
I'm surprised that there is no comment on the major upset in Massachusetts. A Republican won the former seat held by Senator Ted Kennedy in the most liberal state of the union - a seat held by Democrats for over half a century. This is an earthquake in the political landscape. Scott Brown's election has almost single-handedly destroyed Barack Obama's health care bill. The Democrats no longer have a supermajority and the GOP now have the filibuster. Hello?