Catch 22 in the EU
From the desk of Paul Belien on Wed, 2010-02-17 11:13
The Greek crisis risks triggering a domino effect which would expose the
dire budgetary situation in other countries of the eurozone, the group of 16
European Union member states that have the euro as their common currency. The
countries most vulnerable are the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy,
Greece and Spain), but France and Belgium also have weak public finances. A
strategist of the French bank Société Générale told investors
last week to prepare for the inevitable “ultimate denouement: the break-up of
the eurozone.”
Last Thursday, a summit meeting of EU leaders in Brussels failed to
provide concrete European measures to shore up Greece’s public finances. Apart from being politically difficult, a
plan to bail out Greece might also be illegal under the EU Treaties. The think
tank Open Europe looked at ten possible options for a bailout and found that
only one is unambiguously legal under the Treaties.
Public opinion in Germany, the strongest economy in Europe, is also
unwilling to bail out profligate eurozone members, such as Greece and Spain,
who insist on granting their citizens a cornucopia of welfare benefits which
the state can no longer afford. Otmar Issing, a former ECB board member, did
not mince his words when he told the German paper Welt Am Sonntag, referring to
Greece’s generous pension system, that the Greeks had to start living within
their means. “One can’t demand help from the outside in order to continue with
something like this,” he said.
Germany’s taxpayers agree. A poll by the mass circulation tabloid Bild showed that 67%
of the Germans oppose a bailout of Greece with German money. Because a failure
to solve Greece’s problems will inevitably drag the euro down, thereby leading
to higher inflation in Germany, the Germans offered an alternative to solve the
euro crisis: 53% said that Greece should be expelled from the eurozone if it
poses a danger to the EU’s currency.
Legally, however, it is impossible to eject a country from the eurozone
without ejecting it from the EU altogether – which is legally impossible as
well. This creates a catch 22 situation, which the Germans can only solve with
a very radical solution: leaving the eurozone themselves. If Berlin were to do
this, it would be able to create a new eurozone without the PIIGS countries – a
euromarkzone of sorts, with France, the Benelux countries,
Finland, Austria and Slovenia. Though no-one is admitting it in public, various
economists do not rule out such a scenario.
Exaspiration with the PIIGS could make this scenario a realistic option
sooner than one expects. On Monday, following a meeting in Brussels, the
finance ministers of the eurozone told Greece that it has to cut back its
deficit more rigorously. The ministers said that Athens has to reduce its
deficit from 12.7% of GDP to 8.7% this year. They warned that if Greece does
not present a plan to do so by March 16 they will “take determined and
coordinated measures to safeguard the stability of the eurozone as a whole.”
What these measures might be was not disclosed. “We do not feel it would be
wise to have a public discussion of such instruments, but if those instruments
are called for, then you can take it that we will have those instruments,”
Jean-Claude Juncker, the Prime Minister of Luxemburg and the chairman of the eurozone
group said.
Greece’s socialist government is resisting pressure from Germany and the
ECB for added budget austerity measures – including abolishing the extra month
of salary which Greek public sector workers get at Christmas. Greek Prime
Minister George Papandreou slammed the EU for not doing enough to help his
country “against the perceptions and the psychology of the markets.”
In Spain, another eurozone country where a socialist government is in
the bad habit of running huge budget deficits, the newspaper El Pais reported that
the intelligence services are investigating the role of British and American
media in fomenting “speculative attacks” against the Spanish economy. Spain is
the only economy in Western Europe that is still in recession. Clearly Prime
Minister Jose Luis Zapatero does not want to take the blame himself.
Meanwhile, in London, there is considerable relief that Britain held on
to the pound and refused to adopt the euro ten years ago. “Let us give thanks
that we never joined,” Simon Heffer wrote in his column in the London Daily
Telegraph.
While the Greek problem looms over the euro as the sword of Damocles, economic
recovery in the eurozone has stagnated. The eurozone economy grew by only 0.1%
in the fourth quarter of last year, trailing far behind the US economic growth
of 1.4% in the same quarter. In the third quarter of 2009, the eurozone still
had a modest growth of 0.4%.
RE: Catch 22
Submitted by Kapitein Andre on Thu, 2010-02-18 09:25.
Dear Dr. Belien,
I agree entirely that Belgium is a microcosm of the EU, and in this case the Eurozone. It amuses me to see Greeks striking and protesting in the streets, acting as though they were fighting for justice rather than the status quo. The Guardian’s Ian Traynor reminds us that the Greeks “lied their way into the euro-zone in 2001 through fiddling the figures, enjoyed the rising living standards for years, and cannot now expect the Germans and others to pick up the bill." It is fortunate that the Greeks do not have power over the Germans as the Walloons do over the Flemings.
Also of interest is the investigation into “speculative attacks” by Anglo–American media outlets on Spain’s economy by the CNI. If Goldman Sachs could assist Greece with “fiddling the figures”, and so many British ex–pats live in Spain, does this conspiracy even make sense? Perhaps the CNI would be better tasked investigating Islamic supremacism and militancy among Spain’s Muslim community and among the large population of illegal immigrants. Even ETA should keep Spanish intelligence occupied. Then again, despite decades of authoritarian government, the Spanish judiciary prime concern is bringing the IDF to trial.
I disagree that social expenditures are necessarily untenable. I believe in universal healthcare, public primary and secondary education, and certain social security provisions such as unemployment insurance and pension plans. However, I do not believe in redistribution for the sake of “social justice” or corrupt and inefficient public administration. Of course, I believe culture is essential to both the private and public spheres: the Scottish Enlightenment and Calvinism were vital to the emergence and development of capitalism, and no structural prescriptions by the EU, IMF or World Bank can impose German or Flemish values on the Greeks.
dragging the euro
Submitted by kappert on Wed, 2010-02-17 11:36.
For Europe's industry a dragging down of the Euro would be a benevolent advantage, exports would rise, 'national' products would jump up in the market share against overseas products. To attest a 'cornucopia of welfare benefits' practiced in Greece and other Mediterranean countries is a blount exaggeration compared to the fares paid in northern countries. Such low criticism should not be on the agenda. Even in Germany, this kind of Westerwelle-style does not have many supporters. The drag-down of the British pound under Blair prevented unemployment, I understand.
Cornucopia
Submitted by Paul Belien on Wed, 2010-02-17 11:57.
Two things:
1/ I wrote: granting the citizens "a cornucopia of welfare benefits which the state can no longer afford." It is obvious that Germany can grant its citizens more than Greece and other Mediterranean countries. The question is: Do the Germans have to pay the welfare benefits of the Greeks? This is also the question at the heart of the Belgian problem: Do the Flemings have to pay the welfare benefits of the Walloons? The answer in both cases is No. But at least the Germans (and Flemings) have tried (are trying) to put their own house in order; the Greeks (and Walloons) refuse to do even this because they insist that others pay their bills.
2/In my opinion the cornucopia of welfare benefits in Germany, Flanders and other countries is also unaffordable. Greece will collapse, but so will Germany, the UK, Japan, the US,... The age of the welfare state is almost over.