Duly Noted: Withdraw If The Enemy Shoots

bj-logo-handlery.gif
George Handlery about the week that was. Withdraw if they shoot back. Words do not always suffice to defend democratic values. The new, stylish way to commit suicide. Climate-gate and good intentions that redeem bad deeds. Sanctions could save Iran from the Mullah’s folly. The Dictator’s Tantrum

1. The Dutch coalition government has collapsed since the Social Democrats are unwilling to continue to support the country’s modest military presence in Afghanistan. A problem eliciting the principled resistance further to the base in the rear is that local fundamentalists fire at the many they do not like. Shots hurt people. But only those who are close. To protect the humanistic values of the party, the soldiers that face a cruel enemy are to be saved by moving them out of harm’s way. Will the same conflict shift to Holland? If the pattern is followed the response then might be to go (again) into English exile. Provided, of course that, with no Churchill in sight, she will still stand by then. The case suggests that there are parties that are committed, no matter what, to moderation. This temperance they practice in an unlimited amount as soon as the defense of civilized values becomes, through an attack, the issue in a controversy.

2. In the good old times, when someone wanted to commit suicide he killed himself. Nowadays a new fashion prevails. Suicide is committed by taking other people with you. The Jihadists do it as a last act of combat, others to direct attention on the beef they had with their spouse, the weather or the taxman. Recent cases suggest a revealing thesis. Earlier, those who felt that they have failed to the extent that their life lost its purpose did so by blaming their own shortcomings. Now the fashion is to deemphasize personal responsibility and to make “society” responsible for failure. Once the environment of the suicide candidate is blamed for the fiasco of a life then it is logical to punish “society”, fellow students, faculty, co-workers or ones family.

3. Embracing a radical ideology is followed by delusions that go beyond the logical problems of the adherent’s newly found secular religion. The consequences reach into the area of behavior. Those convinced by their creed regard themselves to be so right that they feel they soar above critique. Thus, they assume that falsifying unpleasant facts is a right of the messengers of a truth so highfaluting that the average person is incapable to understand it. Representing the Truth, they are morally authorized to do whatever their cause needs. Right, wrong, truth and falsehood are subjected to one criterion. It is the good of the movement. In our time, those committed to the climate-change-by-man might belong into this category. If then, as some of the evidence suggests, they manipulate information they do not feel as cheaters or unscientific. In the service of a moral cause, they remain ethical persons. In fact, what is cheating to the skeptics mutes into a moral action taken in the interest of mankind in need to be saved from its mistakes. Doing so might demand the bending of a few stubborn facts analogous to the way bonsais are trimmed. All is excused if a transcendental truth is rescued from the attacks of those unable to recognize it.

4. As things stand, Iran’s handling of the controversy surrounding her nuclear project, demonstrates a superb understanding of the self-inflicted weaknesses of the foe. Nevertheless, Iran has lost sight of the strengths of the enemies made by her unbending persistence. Iran is blinded by her tactical successes. This it is comprehensible. The hither record can be interpreted, as Tehran undoubtedly does, as a series of triumphs achieved at little cost and with the dividends growing after each stage of her offensive.  At the same time, Iran has difficulties to understand that those threatening her with economic and political measures are, while reluctant to make a timely move, serious about eventually retaliating with all their means. This crisis management by the great powers and the West in general, repeats past mistakes made to contain the danger from initially weaker but fanatical aggressors.

The Mullahs seem to be ignorant of the precedents. Their chosen foes have repeatedly deferred their threatened action until a time when moving after repeated “ultimatums” involved unnecessarily high costs. Here one thinks of Hitler during the Polish crisis. He said, “I saw them in Munich and they are worms.” The man had a point. The English and the French failed to act in ’38 while they had an advantage. Why should they mean it when in ’39 the advantage was gone? The best outcome of the crisis for Tehran would be if paralyzing sanctions would be imposed NOW. Not having the bomb yet, she would have to accept a deal that benefits her. However, the standing offer does not give Iran all she wants. Resolution now would prevent dragging the crisis to the abyss at the end of this road.

 

5. The Dictator’s Tantrum. In the past, a revealing mini-drama has been reported under this subtitle. The story has now reached a level at which the world press should take notice. Even days after the newest highlight this has not happened. Apparently, the case fails to fit into favorite concepts and so it is kept under cover.

Here the essential facts of the case. In the summer of 2008, a Gaddafi-son rented a luxury suite in Geneva. The police was called when the Qaddafi’s beat their (Arab) servants. Mr. Son lacked diplomatic status: he and his wife were arrested and then released on bail. Junior’s sister appeared to promise revenge. Promptly two Swiss were arrested in Libya. For their release, Gaddafi wanted compensation and an apology.

Last summer Switzerland’s acting President flew to Tripoli. There he apologized for treating Mr. Son like anyone else. Believing that he had a deal, the luggage of the hostages went on the presidential plane. However, the machine returned without the captives because “details” had to be settled. Subsequently the plane was sent back. It returned empty after three days on the tarmac. The procedures of famously independent Libyan justice had to be respected. Subsequently the men were lured out of the embassy to pass a pre-exit medical exam. They were arrested. Later, under pressure, Gaddafi let them return to the embassy.

Exasperated, the Swiss blocked the entry of Libyans in the Schengen area. Libya responded by excluding Europeans. This led to negotiations with European participation. A deal seemed achieved. One of the hostages was let go. Another one, who got four months, was denied his passport. Since he was at the embassy, the Libyans prepared to storm it. The European diplomatic missions sent representatives to the embassy to prevent its occupation. For obscure reasons, ultimately the “fugitive” was turned over to the Libyans. Whether this extradition or the ambassadors have prevented the violation of extraterritoriality is unclear. As things stand, Gaddafi remains dissatisfied. It tells much about his mental state that he has called now for a holy war against Switzerland. The provocation is a vote in November that banned the construction of new minarets. The measure does not pertain to existing minarets or to new mosques. Not overly gifted to grasp nuances, the Revolutionary Leader charges the “faithless” Swiss with destroying such structures.

Besides being outrageous, the matter is also thought provoking. For one thing, it tells about the risks of dealing with such régimes and the value of their assurances. Even more significant is the next point. For centuries – until the storming of the US’ embassy in Tehran – conflicts could be mitigated by a wise system regulating diplomatic activity. Extraterritoriality and immunity are at the heart of this method of conflict resolution. Naturally, we can tolerate the violation of these principles. In doing so, however, we should realize that we help to undermine a once rock solid system and thereby an arrangement that has served the world community well. The disintegration of the diplomatic component of international relations means that, in the pursuit of security, other than political means will become the instrument of first resort.

 

 

The best outcome...

The best outcome of the crisis for Tehran would be if paralyzing sanctions would be imposed NOW.

Which begs the question, what sort of "sanction" could induce paralysis? Also, who would impose this punishment, and for whom would it mostly benefit? Finally, who will pay? If "the world" is within a sovereign nation's jurisdiction, for it to do with as it will, then all is well. Of course such an idea calls the very idea of sovereignty into question.

comment

1. I'm glad that there is one more country with the guts to say NO to a useless war. The end of Balkenende is only consequent, hopefully the Dutch argumentation/humanistic values will grab some brains in Germany, too.
2. The suicide pattern described is essentially value for young male students.
3. The climatic change happens anyway, no matter how much human contribution participates. Yet, meteorologists are not ideologically biased, false measurements are common, just think about the effect of tobacco smoking and its scientific revelations during the decades. The same is valid for automobiles and general traffic pollution. We should concentrate on the real measurements of ice retreat, draughts and alluviums, heat and cold waves – climate is changing quickly.
4. Iran has the right to develop nuclear energy as any industrial country may do, even if it is foolish. On contrary to '38 Germany, Ahmadinejad does not have total control in his country which is more and more put into the hands of clerics and their dangerous narrow-minded Revolutionary Guard. Only Iranians can solve these problems.
5. Both Switzerland and Libya behave like elephants in a porcelain store. It is an interesting move to block out the Schengen states – now they have to think twice whether they include the Swiss black sheep in the community. Clever, Gaddafi.

RE: Duly Noted

1.  It is laughable to suggest that the Afghan conflict can “shift” to the Netherlands, considering that the troublesome 6% Muslim minority is mainly Moroccan and Turkish, and I very much doubt that the future of Task Force Uruzgan will have any bearing on Dutch civil unrest.

 

2.  Suicide attacks are an ancient tactic.  However, I am entirely disgusted by murder–suicide.

 

3.  Duly noted.

 

4.  I observed in prior comments that Ahmadinejad was aping Hitler’s foreign policy.  Yet Ahmadinejad has been unable to consolidate power, and the Iranian state appears divided between the civilian clerics and the Revolutionary Guards.  The Revolutionary Guards are a state within a state, and control the military application of Iran’s nuclear program, especially after 2003, as well as Iran’s foreign proxies and the militia.  The optimal solution would be to remove the Revolutionary Guards from power, even if this meant the reassertion of clerical power.  Western cooperation with the clerics may seem distasteful, but if this is the 1930s redux, the clerics are the old guard of aristocrats and officers, and the Revolutionary Guards are the new NSDAP/SS wave.  Mir–Hossein Mousavi is a not a pro–Western liberal, but a Stauffenberg–esqe conservative. 

 

It would be difficult for the West to help break the Revolutionary Guards’ power whilst allowing the clerics to save face, but airstrikes would be even more so.  Iran is not Afghanistan or Iraq: most of the Iranian people look to the West.  I have far more faith in the Persians than the Arabs, and hope that Iran can be free and democratic.

 

5.  Why did Reagan have to miss?