Could the Eurozone Rise Like Japan?

The Imperial Japanese Navy made its attack on Pearl Harbor on the morning of December 7, 1941. The number of US servicemen killed on this one day 64 years ago: 2,403. Number of civilians killed on this one day 64 years ago: 68.

On a day when Japan will deservedly be kicked around a bit, the New York Times has some good news for our brothers and sisters in the Far East:

Could it be that Japan, long the sick man among major global economies, has finally recovered? [...] [T]his time, most economists and analysts agree, the recovery seems to be real, its roots extending through the Japanese economy. After more than a decade of working off excessive debt, bloated payrolls and overbuilt factory capacity, Japan seems to have addressed its bubble-era problems and emerged leaner and more competitive, the economists say. In fact, the economy here is projected to be growing at a faster rate than Europe’s this year.

Well actually Japan has had a GDP growth rate higher than Europe’s since 2003. The 1990’s and early 2000’s are rightfully lost years for Japan, economically speaking. It is not a stretch to say that Europe is undergoing its own lost economic years. A view of early lost year situations:

eurota-japan-1.gif
Source, Eurostat

eurota-japan-2.gif
Source, Eurostat

eurota-japan-3.gif
Source, Eurostat

It is interesting to see such a similarity in the numbers. Hopefully Europe can cut the losses after five years. Japan’s second half of lost years had an average GDP growth of just 1.3% for the years 1996 thru 2000.

I read recently that someone

I read recently that someone in Japan referred to the 1990s as the first demographic depression (or some such), the implication being that the primary cause was an aging society. Europe is just a few years behind Japan demographically, and Italy is about even. Economists haven't done much useful work about the relation between aging societies and growth, but Japan now may be seeing a few anomalous years in the midst of a long-term depression.