Immigrants Comprise One Third of Dutch Population in 2050

Last Monday the Dutch Central Statistics Office CBS presented its latest demographic forecast. The figures show that the immigrant population in the Netherlands will grow from 19% of the population today to almost 29% by 2050. By the middle of the century the Netherlands is predicted to see its overall population grow to 16.8 million, from 16.4 million today. However, while the number of non-immigrant Dutch will decrease by 1.2 million in the next four decades, the number of immigrants will increase by 1.6 million.

Today 80.8% of the Dutch population is indigenous. According to the CBS this number will decrease to 71.5% in 2050. The number of immigrants from Western countries (mainly East Europeans) will rise from 8.7% today to 12.5%, and the number of non-Western immigrants from 10.5% to 16%.

The CBS defines “non-Western immigrants” as people with at least one parent born in a non-Western country (Japan and the former Dutch colony of Indonesia are included in the group of Western countries). The growth of the Dutch immigrant population is located mainly in the second non-Western immigrant generation, i.e. young people who are born in the Netherlands from at least one parent born in a non-Western country (excluding Japan and Indonesia).

The growth of “traditional” immigrant groups – ethnic Moroccans, Turks and people from Surinam, another former Dutch colony – will diminish compared with “new immigrants” from China, Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. CBS researcher Jan Latten said that although the number of ethnic Moroccans, Turks and Surinamese will keep growing and marital import is a widespread phenomenon among these groups, their average number of children per family declines – which is not the case among Iraqis, Iranians and Afghans.

 

Third generation Moroccans and Turks are no longer considered to be immigrants by the CBS. Since third generation immigrants are not considered to be immigrants – and many of the latter are Muslims – the CBS figures do not indicate the rise of the Muslim population in the Netherlands. At present there are 1 million Muslims on a total of 16 million inhabitants in the Netherlands. At over 6% of the population this is proportionally the largest Muslim immigrant population of all Western nations, except for France which has 6 million Muslims on a total of 60 million inhabitants. The Muslims are younger than the indigenous population and tend to be concentrated in the cities. This causes problems which were addressed in two recent official reports. The first, by the Intervention Teams for Interethnic Relations, was published last Wednesday. Another, by the National Anti-Terrorism Coordinator, last month. I report on their findings here.

In Response to Sonomaca

Suffice it to say that if Muslim integration into British society is even publicly discussed or debated on any significant level, which it is, than Muslims are not interested in assimilating. Contemporary Islam is determined to expand: while European Muslims may be using 'soft power,' the tools afforded them by multiculturalist and politically correct public policies, to these ends, their African brethren are quite content to engage in rape, pillage, murder, and genocide in Africa. Muslim crime (which is more cultural than socio-economic in source) in Western Europe and their forcible conversions in India demonstrates Islam's vehemence just underneath the surface.

The article is a red

The article is a red herring. The figures do not reflect the highly probable chance of assimilation of ethnic communities into mainstream Dutch society. For example, most Turks are secular and not religious. Consequently, a child born to a second or third generation Turk who has very little connections to his/her country of origin is likely to marry indigenous Dutch and adopt Western values. Similarly, Europe's Muslim communities will gradually become liberal and westernised as the parents of Muslim children born in Holland, UK, France die or return to their countries of origin. This will take 20-30 years but will happen. Remember, change does not happen overnight. It took Europes Jewish communities hundreds of years to integrate.

The article is a red

The article is a red herring. The figures do not reflect the highly probable chance of assimilation of ethnic communities into mainstream Dutch society. For example, most Turks are secular and not religious. Consequently, a child born to a second or third generation Turk who has very little connections to his/her country of origin is likely to marry indigenous Dutch and adopt Western values. Similarly, Europe's Muslim communities will gradually become liberal and westernised as the parents of Muslim children born in Holland, UK, France die or return to their countries of origin. This will take 20-30 years but will happen. Remember, change does not happen overnight. It took Europes Jewish communities hundreds of years to integrate.

The article is a red

The article is a red herring. The figures do not reflect the highly probable chance of assimilation of ethnic communities into mainstream Dutch society. For example, most Turks are secular and not religious. Consequently, a child born to a second or third generation Turk who has very little connections to his/her country of origin is likely to marry indigenous Dutch and adopt Western values. Similarly, Europe's Muslim communities will gradually become liberal and westernised as the parents of Muslim children born in Holland, UK, France die or return to their countries of origin. This will take 20-30 years but will happen. Remember, change does not happen overnight. It took Europes Jewish communities hundreds of years to integrate.

Sam Iqbal

I would be interested to know whether Muslim's in the UK are interested in integration. Everything we hear seems to indicate the opposite.

It would seem, in fact, that even the "moderate" Imams look forward to the day when the green flag of Islam will fly over 21 Downing and over other European centers of government.

On the Aesthetic Facet of Nationality

While nationality and race (more correctly termed phenotype, or physical or aesthetic characteristics) overlap significantly, they are not the same. Firstly, no European nation has a monopoly on any of the 20 sub-races of the Caucasoid race as recognized by racial anthropologists. Secondly, nationality includes other facets such as culture, history, symbols, heroes, myths, and language.

 

However, the aesthetic facet is the nation's raison d'etre in that it contributes to a sense of one's belonging and the continuity of one's national community; in essence, it is a visual reminder of one's roots and one's membership, in the way that family traits and 'looks' are passed on.

 

Unfortunately, the non-aesthetic facets of nationality can evolve and be discarded. Why should a Black want to emulate traditional Bavarian dress? Why should a Frenchman want to wear African tribal wear? These other facets, while endowed with a higher purpose by future generations, are all derived from necessity, whether it be the fact that corn was plentiful in Mesoamerica and not Poland or wool was readily available in Scotland but not China. Without the enlarged family that nationality creates, there is no reason to carry on tradition, and indeed a globalized world can look forward to nothing but American pop culture. Only if red dots on one's forehead become suddenly fashionable and marketable will that Indian tradition continue.

 

Thus, the race in nation is the sex in marriage: a small component that can bind or destroy the institution. Europe's non-Whites will only assimilate insofar as the law is concerned, and even then we see many exceptions. European civilization and ultimately Western civilization depends upon demographics.

Firm yet fair

"
All in all we plan to uphold democratic tradition, and not give in one millimeter."

If the Danes can do it why can't the Brits or the French immitate?

The law of the land should always apply to all.  To do nothing when some violent group wreck hahoc is to mis-govern.  I state this regardless of my personal opinion or choices.  For example, I find that there too many stupid and unecessary STOP signs in California.  Yet I still must stop.

Europe turning into the vegtable citzens of U.S.A, CAN and AUS

Whats the best way for the Washington evil goverment to control Europe and its own citzens apart from money turn into a "multicultural melting pot" what i like to call vegtable people
when Poland,Slovenia joined EU they quickly sent soilders to assist Washingtons imperialist goverment on Iraq you would think these countries learnt there lesson when Germany occupied them in world war now these countries are doing the same to Iraq,Afgan
Unfortunatly i live in Australia (U.S washington satilite goverment) however i have seen the disaperance of the white poilicy its only taken a number of years to wipe out half the Anglo /eurpeans so i can see how quick it can destroy Europe. However i personaly don't care about Australia as the English convicts don't like other european people but prefer marrying asians and having "designer" babies" (multicutural babies)i allso saw a lot of these in my trips to northen Europe particular Sweden.

I say bring back the IRON CURTAIN AND PLACE IT BETWEEN THE ENGLISH CHANNEl. If Europe stuck together and stop trading with US it can destroy the evil imperilist goverment and become an indpendent like North Korea and China.

We should start sending muslim immigrants out

Considering the obvious disintegration of society when you mix people of very different background, I think you shouldnt talk about how many immigrants you would want to receive - but how many you would want to send home again.

In Denmark this is the point we have reached right now. We have more or less stopped the immigration of muslims into Denmark, and now we wonder how to send muslims back again.

In many ways Denmark are a bit ahead of rest of Europe - (with all respect to our good neighbours) so the development here might indicate how the rest of Europe might cope with the immigration.

So it is still something we discuss, and we are not finished with that discussion - here are some of the main points though:

1. One of the main deciding factors behind a expatrication (sending muslims home) is wether the person is loyal to 2 factors: 1. Democracy 2. The law state. Most devout muslims are not loyal to any of the above, and it is therefor within any democratic reason to expel them. Otherwise democracy does not work anymore.

2. Any kind of criminality wil automatically expel any non citizen. At least any kind of criminality with violence involved

3. All the funding muslims receive are stopped

4. Local habits in all official institutions are strictly upheld; no special muslim food, no division of men and women in public baths, all schools are strictly democratic, all holocaust denial or antisemetic ideas are banned and so on.

5. All mosques are frequently investigated to counter jihad missionaries and so on

All in all we plan to uphold democratic tradition, and not give in one millimeter.

Europe Drank The Kool- Aid

Yes, Europe drank the kool-aid with the rest of the West. What is the kool-aid? It's contraception,sterilization,and abortion and zero-population growth! What caused it? Yes, apostasy of the Catholic faith and a dramatic plunge in church attendance and belief in God. What are its fruits? Islamo-fascism with its immigrant populations in Europe to replace a non-existent growing population of younger workers for older retired workers, atheistic materialism and a profane love of all the pleasures of self, and a consequent cultural meltdown of Europe's once beautiful ethic diversity.

Anyone wish to turn back the clock to the 1960's when Catholic Europe was on its knees, attending Mass weekly in the rich traditions of Roman Catholocism which have nearly vanished now from Europe with the change to the innovative 'new mass.' With the setting aside of the Chruch's traditional worship of the Tridentine Mass came the sex revolution and all the collateral damage we see today.

There is nothing more beautiful in worship than the Roman Catholic Mass of tradition, both a 'proptitiatory' and 'impetratory' sacrifice to Almighty God by Our Lord Jesus Christ for our sins, a sacrifice that is overflowing to this day with effficacious graces. Pope Benedict XVI is leading this restoration, as we speak,with a great return to this pristine form of worship. Our Dear Lord has also taught in one of His most beautiful parables about what is efficacious prayer to Almighty God and what is not. Study this parable and see what alone will save Europe and America from this satanical jihad with a return to true prayer and worship of the one true God, Jesus Christ.

The Orthodox Roman Catholic

These figures are

These figures are laughable.  They don't account for the fact that a rising Muslim population, and the associated discomforts for ethnic Dutch, elicits an outward exodus of native Dutch.

We have seen this in spades already, as more ethnic Dutch left the Netherlands last year than at any time in the past 3 decades.

Something in between?

[Edited]

I guess you are right. I guess they may count that the recent years avarage emigration in the future will be quite constant over time. Allthough differences in birth rate I guess they consider. However it's fine to see an "anti-thesis" to the usually high figures here, which I think use to be a bit exaggerated. The top values for immigrants ackumulated over time and the lowest values for indigenous population used? I trust something not as bad as the usual figures here as well as not as good as this report.

Is the immigration now considerably lower than it has been in the Netherlands, or...?

Crucial for success are also assimilation and integration enabled by all imigrants acceptance of law and basic values in the country, as well as a good economy and job market to integrate into.

But Europe can't every year let 1 percent of its population be imigrants of the year -- just as in Sweden. There are too big demographic problems with possibly 20 per cent (out of the total population and put upon the already 5-10 per cent) from outside Europe in about 40-50 years. We have to stop and think, I guess. Think how to deal with an already existing multicultutal society. But in Sweden we have silence.

Even if things are under control now the highest imigration rate ever raises questions... But still silence.

Other etnic

What about Beliens "30 per cent born from muslims in 2025", or something like that? That is a prediction based both on strong muslim immigration as well as a very high birth numbers for muslim women compared to the low numbers for indigenous dutch women, or? Isn't there a possibility both of net emigration of indigenous dutch people as well as a higher birth rate (at younger age) for the period of time (two generations) until 2050 that in this report may not has been taken into consideration as much as it might should have been?

(In Sweden the immigration 2006 was 100000 people, more than 1 % of the population; only from Iraq 10000 people. Malmo, a larger city in southern Sweden (not fully 200000 inhabitants), recieved 5000 imigrants (more than 2 per cent of its population to put upon the 20-25 per cent already) while the whole of Denmark (about 5 million inhabitants) recieved only 7000 immigrants. Believe it or not, but politicians in Malmo are surpriced that there is now a successful party opposing the immigration policy...)

My guess is that we will have both net emigration as well as a higher birt rate among non european immigrants, and that this will cause almost double as many muslims every 40 years (in Europe this should raise today figure 2-4 percent in west Europe to 4-8 percent 2050, new immigration not included; 5-10 percent maybe...). The non indigenous people will go from 85-90 percent to 70 percent due to birth rate, immigration and emigration. Three factors that ackumulated shall have a distinct effect.

Although I think the outcome of this CAN be okey, but only if assimilation is strong as a policy (especially towards large totalitarian doctrine based religions) and the economy is a sound job market meltpot, not a ...casino for social benifits.

There are immigrants and there are immigrants...

It is safe to assume that the descendants of Eastern European immigrants will assimilate into Dutch society without severe problems, as they share much cultural heritage. This will not be a perfect process, but compared to what Europe is seeing from its new, rising Muslim population it will be a walk in the park. European countries who cannot resist immigration would do well to diversify the source nation so as to prevent cultural separatism, or mute its power.  This, combined with a clear-eyed confrontation with Islamic religious authority and Sharia supremacism is probably the most attainable course of action for Western Europe in general and the Netherlands.