Will the Euro Lead to Political Balkanization?
From the desk of The Brussels Journal on Sun, 2007-09-23 20:32
A quote from Megan McArdle at the Atlantic blog, 23 September 2007
Now that the European Union has taken over the currency, as well as many of the trade and customs functions of traditional federal governments, Belgium as a state suddenly looks a lot less necessary. One wonders if the current era of economic integration (assuming it continues) might not bring increasing political balkanization.
In Reply to Megan McArdle
Submitted by Kapitein Andre on Mon, 2007-09-24 02:36.
McArdle: The problem of disentangling financial assets and currency is one of the major forces mitigating against separatism.
It really depends on the priorities of the groups in question and the individuals that comprise them. In an era of increasing regional economic integration, there is no reason that free trade could not exist between the successor states or that they could not use a common currency, even though each would presumably have central banks. Moreover, the ownership of fixed assets could be determined by territory. However, fiscal and monetary policy and the division of the state's liquid assets would be problematic.
McArdle: It's generally a good bet that the weaker party in the national union will be the one to lose out from a separation...
Not necessarily. Sometimes the sharp shock of loosing transfer payments can force the "weaker party" to become more competitive. I am certain that the Swiss are contented with their Alps and have no interest in merging with Germany or Austria; I am equally sure that the ex-Soviet republics (save Tajikistan), ex-Warsaw Pact member states and Ireland more or less prefer their independence.
McArdle: I'd expect to see a Quebecois franc trail the Canadian dollar by a considerable margin.
The Quebecois, though individually friendly and warm, cannot seem to govern themselves. They are neither able to make their economy efficient and competitive nor survive as a nation. Nationality involves more than merely a common tongue, however, Quebecois nationalism has been infected with the pervasive multiculturalism and political correctness that is corrupting the rest of the Canadian federation, and as such has become a purely linguistic and territorial nationalism. This has resulted in discrimination against Anglophones and the transfer of the Montreal business elite to Toronto. As the French are having troubles of their own and are not interested in emigrating to Quebec, the latter has to import Francophones from the Caribbean and Africa. It seems as though the province prefers unemployed and low-skilled Black refugees to White professionals...
McArdle: Although I'm pretty sure Alberta would experience the many joys of a rapidly appreciating currency...
So long as natural resources, particularly energy, remain highly priced in the markets....
McArdle: Now that the European Union has taken over the currency, as well as many of the trade and customs functions of traditional federal governments, Belgium as a state suddenly looks a lot less necessary. One wonders if the current era of economic integration (assuming it continues) might not bring increasing political balkanization.
Hopefully it will. If the EU were merely an economic and defense bloc I would expect increasing balkanisation. However, many in Brussels want the EU to be a state, which would rise to power by dividing and conquering its own member states.