EU Economies: Predictions

From the desk of George Adair on Sat, 2005-11-19 15:58

In looking at the new economic predictions put out by the EU it is important to see how well past predictions have played out. The media has picked up on the predictions as "light at the end of the tunnel" for the struggling European economies:

Europe's economy is accelerating out of its recent trough, according to new forecasts from Brussels, but stubborn inflation and high government borrowing could hasten an early interest rate rise in the eurozone.

Resurgent domestic demand should help to drive growth in the European Union from 1.5 per cent this year to 2.1 per cent in 2006 and 2.4 per cent in 2007, the European Commission said.

Fair enough. How have past predictions by the very same body panned out:

ezpreds.jpg
eupreds.jpg

Sources: Economic Forecasts, Spring 2002, Autumn 2002, Spring 2003, Autumn 2003, Spring 2004, Autumn 2004, Spring 2005, Autumn 2005

Grains of salt all around when it comes to predictions. "Revised downward" has become an all too familiar phrase when describing the collective economies of Europe. Hopefully 2006 and 2007 will introduce a new phrase, "revised upward".

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Prediction of Economic Recovery Number 78,162

Submitted by Earl (not verified) on Sun, 2005-11-20 23:23.

Now...just how many times is it going to take to see that one quarter 'up' followed by 4 'down' is not a sign of a normal, healthy economy?

The French, as a result of the recent 'youthful playfulness' are creating anywhere from 20 to 50 thousand jobs, an activity their economy has been unable to create. Just who is going to be funding these, no doubt, highly productive positions doing...something.

...and the German's...well, I won't even venture into that swamp of dysfunctional economic rationale.

Watch how many newly conceived proposals are put forward in the UN for a ‘global tax’ to ‘redistribute the wealth’ of robust and growing nations to maintain these failing states.

The Gig’s almost up, as they say. It's not going to happen.

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Bait and Switch

Submitted by Diresu (not verified) on Sun, 2005-11-20 02:57.

European officials are hoping that everyone reads their fantastic, front page economic estimates. Then when their predictions don't pan out they'll use their connections or influence to get that story buried behind 100 other news stories. The media has become an expert at delivering shots of novocaine to the public. Thank God for the internet

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