From the desk of The Brussels Journal on Fri, 2006-11-24 13:57
A quote from Edward Hugh at the Demography Matters blog, 23 November 2006
What can rapidly be seen is that Eastern Europe has the very unusual combination of both very low fertility and comparatively low first birth ages (in the Serbian case this currently seems to be somewhere round 25). Now what we do know is that in modern developed economies this age seems to trend upwards, slowly and inexorably, towards the 30 years of age range. [...] So eastern Europe is set to experience a continuing process of rising first birth ages, this is also likely to last for a good number of years, and during this process one outcome is guaranteed: a continuing birth dearth as people postpone having children. In many ways these countries are now firmly set between the proverbial rock and the hard place, as they badly need to raise the level of their economic 'net worth' and yet in order to achieve this objective they are only likely to produce less and less children, which means the structural problems in their population pyramids can only deteriorate.
As I say, those excluded from the EU can only expect an even worse variant on this process, since they are very unlikely to experience significant inward migration, while young people from those countries can be expected to leave in search of work in ever growing numbers. The main problem is that many people [...] are in complete denial on the importance of all this.
Does the Number in Europe really Shrink?
Submitted by Joern on Tue, 2006-11-28 12:05.
As far as I notice the populations of Western European nations are increasing
caused entirely by the births of immigrants and the continuing immigration from especially South Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
When you expect the fertility to rise in Eastern Europe - and I primery aggree that the areas are not attractive to the mentioned immigrants - how will you then prove that this rise from the time of oppression and according low fertility will be enough.
And especially: How imported is the increase of fertility at any price in Western Europe under the present suppression causing low fertility as well to any other than the present elites who strive for the financing of the their own mistakes, in any case for the rest of their own lives?
I have a few links concerning Western Europe:
Our European Future
European fertility has to be corrected substantially too
For 6 very good reasons
European Population and Labour force
J. E. Vig, Denmark
Ralph Peters vs. Mark Steyn
Submitted by sonomaca on Sun, 2006-11-26 23:11.
Basically, Peters thinks that Europe's Muslims are in trouble and will deported or worse. Steyn believes there will be a return to European fascism, but the high European median age will limit the damage. Besides, other Europeans will find it easier to leave (as the Dutch and some French have done) or convert to Islam.
I side with Steyn. Are Europeans really going to have the energy to rise out of their wheelchairs and battle hordes of hateful, aggresive, and energetic youth.
My prediction: Paris will fall by 2022, perhaps earlier. Parts of Europe will end up a patchwork of hostile mini-states, some Muslim and others not.
Needless to say, all the big, world-class European companies will relocate to the US, Australia, or Canada, as they follow their highly educated workforces overseas.
I believe that France, Russia, and Belgium are pretty much gone as viable nation-states. In 5 years' time, we'll be able to say the same thing about Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Holland, and Denmark. In 10 years time, bye-bye Norway and Germany. Only Spain, with its large Latin American immigrant population may survive.
The UK may last 20 years.